Shortly after Super Tuesday, I put together a model that projected Mitt Romney's share of the "non-Paul vote" (i.e., the Gingrich/Romney/Santorum vote) at the county level based on six variables: the percentage of Mormons, the percentage of African-Americans, the percentage of Latinos, the percentage of college-educated voters, the percentage of evangelicals, and whether a state was Midwestern and conducted a caucus (it also included a dummy variable for Georgia and Massachusetts, given "home field" advantages in those two for Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney).Initially,...
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