Sunday, September 30, 2012

Romney or Obama? Political scientists make their predictions

Are you ready to call the election? Mitt Romney certainly isn’t, nor for that matter is President Obama. But a few hardy academics have done so. Out now are a baker’s dozen forecasts produced by political scientists that predict the outcome in November.

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Does the “skewed polls” crowd have a point? Not really.

Of late, the political world has been dominated by allegations — almost all of which have come from the conservative end of the spectrum — that the media (and its pollsters) are part of a grand conspiracy designed to re-elect President Obama.

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Nate Silver’s ‘The Signal and the Noise’

Normally, when a new book rolls into our office, we subject it to Marshall McLuhan’s page 69 test. Flip to page 69, read what’s there. If the passage is any good, then the book’s worth a deeper browse.

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For Romney, wealth means both freedom and a trap

When Mitt Romney was a young man, his father gave him direct advice: “He said never get involved in politics if you have to win election to pay a mortgage,” Romney often says. “Financial independence was key.”

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For Romney, wealth means both freedom and a trap

When Mitt Romney was a young man, his father gave him direct advice: “He said never get involved in politics if you have to win election to pay a mortgage,” Romney often says. “Financial independence was key.”

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Failed Bombings in Thailand, India Indicate Weaknesses in Iranian Espionage

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Most are negative about Mitt Romney’s “47 percent” comments

A majority of Americans have unfavorable views of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s comments — caught on film at a fundraiser — regarding the “47 percent” of people who don’t pay federal income taxes and simply would not vote for him, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll

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The almost-competitiveness of Arizona and Pennsylvania

We’re getting to that point in the presidential campaign when we start second-guessing ourselves about which swing states are, well, swing states.

Just this week, Democrats have started whispering (again) that they might try to expand the map by pursuing red-leaning Arizona, and Mitt Romney said Friday that he expects to win in a blue-leaning state, Pennsylvania.

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Saturday, September 29, 2012

Amid debt crisis, Paul Ryan sat on the sidelines

According to his pal Kevin McCarthy, vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan is “the thinker” of the GOP, the fiscal visionary with the plan to lead America out of debt and into the promised land of balanced budgets.

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We Need to Start Rationing Health Care

Steven Rattner, New York Times
WE need death panels. For Op-Ed, follow @nytopinion and to hear from the editorial page editor, Andrew Rosenthal, follow @andyrNYT. Well, maybe not death panels, exactly, but unless we start allocating health care resources more prudently — rationing, by its proper name — the exploding cost of Medicare will swamp the federal budget. But in the pantheon of toxic issues — the famous “third rails” of American politics — none stands taller than overtly acknowledging that elderly Americans are not entitled to every...

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The almost-competitiveness of Arizona and Pennsylvania

We’re getting to that point in the presidential campaign when we start second-guessing ourselves about which swing states are, well, swing states.

Just this week, Democrats have started whispering (again) that they might try to expand the map by pursuing red-leaning Arizona, and Mitt Romney said Friday that he expects to win in a blue-leaning state, Pennsylvania.

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U.S.-Japan Missile Defense Cooperation Comes With Risks

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Kenya Violence Underscores Government's Failure to Establish Rule of Law

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Kit Bond backs Akin

Former Missouri senator Christopher “Kit” Bond, one of the many Republicans who encouraged Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) to end his Senate campaign before this week’s drop-out deadline, is now backing the religious conservative lawmaker.

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Obama campaign attacks Romney on Chinese investments

The Obama campaign has attacked Republican Mitt Romney this week for having investments in China, saying it is inappropriate for a presidential nominee to be investing so much money there.

Former Ohio governor Ted Strickland (D), a campaign co-chairman, said it “defies logic.” “It may not be illegal, it may not be unethical, but it is unseemly,” he said in an interview. “It just leaves a bad taste in your mouth.”

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Obama, Romney to break from trail ahead of debate

President Obama travels to Henderson, Nev., on Sunday for a mission far more important than the usual swing-state campaign rally: He will huddle privately with senior aides for an intensive, three-day boot camp to prepare for the first presidential debate.

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Friday, September 28, 2012

Claire McCaskill’s unlikely supporter: Joe Ricketts

Supporters of Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) might be surprised to learn that among them is a billionaire behind a super PAC that has pledged to spend $10 million helping Mitt Romney get elected.

TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts chairs Ending Spending Action Fund, a group that is backing GOP Senate candidates this cycle, with one notable exception: McCaskill, who Ricketts’s group endorsed shortly after the Missouri Senate primary in early August.

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Delay in posting employee disclosures approved

The House on Friday joined the Senate in approving a delay of a requirement that financial disclosure forms filed by many executive branch and congressional employees be posted online.

With no debate, the House cleared a bill that the Senate had passed just before it recessed to delay the posting requirement until Dec. 8, while ordering a study of the potential impact of making those disclosure forms available on agency Web sites.

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The Right Is Waging a War on Voting

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Distributing the Pain From Europe's Austerity Cure

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Thursday, September 27, 2012

Are the U.S. and Europe headed for a trade war over airline carbon fees?

Are the United States and Europe poised for a trade war over airline fees? Suddenly, that’s not such a ludicrous question. Late last Friday night, the Senate unanimously passed a bill to try to block a European Union plan to cap carbon emissions on all flights in and out of Europe. The bill sets the stage for a cross-Atlantic showdown that could get unruly.

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Sudan Kidnappings Raise the Heat on China Over High-Risk Investments

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Early voting on pace to surpass 2008 levels in Ohio

It’s too early to draw strong conclusions, but it’s a good bet that early voting in Ohio will surpass 2008 levels. More than 10 percent of Ohio’s registered voters — 723,000 including military personnel and overseas residents — have mailed applications for absentee ballots to county election boards, according to the office of Secretary of State Jon Husted. In 2008, about 30 percent of Ohio voters cast absentee ballots by mail or
voted early in person.

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Polls show Ohio remains elusive for Romney as GOP ticket wraps up bus tour

In the four months since Mitt Romney clinched the GOP presidential nomination, about 20 nonpartisan polls have been taken in the battleground state of Ohio. Romney has led President Obama in just three of them.

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Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Sensing an opening, Mitt Romney focuses attacks on Obama’s foreign policy

PUEBLO, Colorado— Mitt Romney on Monday criticized President Obama’s comments in a recent interview where he described the eruption of violence in the Middle East as “bumps in the road,” saying that Obama has diminished America’s standing in the world and failed to lead.

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Obama to UN: Attacks Violated Ideals

Wilson & Gearan, Washington Post
UNITED NATIONS — President Obama challenged world leaders Tuesday to condemn the violent attacks that have occurred against U.S. diplomats and missions in Libya and Egypt, suggesting that now is a key moment in the struggle for democratic freedom throughout the Middle East and North Africa.Speaking to world leaders and diplomats gathered for the U.N. General Assembly, Obama told his audience that “it is the obligation of all leaders, in all countries, to speak out forcefully against violence and extremism.”

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ObamaCare Isn't Reducing Health Costs

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Revolt Against Singh Could Stall India's Economic Momentum

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Ad: George Allen wants to privatize Social Security

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new ad out accusing Republican former senator and governor George Allen of wanting to privatize Social Security.

The ad features an elderly Virginian, shown going to the mailbox, presumably to retrieve his Social Security check. Later, he looks in dismay at images of the Senate candidate on his (perhaps inadvertently impressive-looking) entertainment center.

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Presidential Debates Might Be Romney's Last Chance to Catch Obama

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Post Poll: Obama up 8 points over Romney in Virginia

With just seven weeks of campaigning left before the November election, President Obama holds a clear lead over Mitt Romney in Virginia, buoyed by growing optimism about the state of the country and fueled by a big gender gap working in his favor, according to a new Washington Post poll.

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Why Obama Failed to Unite the Country

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Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Why Obama Failed to Unite the Country

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Afghanistan to Highlight Challenges of Collaboration Between Pentagon and CIA

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Obama’s failed promise of a first-year immigration overhaul

“When we talked about immigration reform in the first year, that’s before the economy was on the verge of collapse ...”

“And so we had to take a whole series of emergency actions to make sure that we put people back to work — cutting taxes for middle-class families and small businesses so that they could stay open or pay the bills; making sure that states got assistance so they didn’t have to lay off teachers and firefighters and police officers; saving an auto industry that was on the brink of collapse. And so that took up a huge amount of time in the first year.”

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History Helps Explain Why the Stimulus Failed

Arthur Brooks, NRO
Ask most Americans about the big-spending government policies of the last few years, and they will tell you the programs have failed. In a February 2012 poll from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, 66 percent of Americans said the federal government is having a negative impact on the way things are going in this country (versus 22 percent who say the impact is positive). A majority disapproves of the president’s 2009 stimulus, and according to a 2010 CNN poll, about three-quarters of Americans believe the money was mostly wasted.Of course, the measure of economic success is not...

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Post Poll: Obama up 8 points over Romney in Virginia

With just seven weeks of campaigning left before the November election, President Obama holds a clear lead over Mitt Romney in Virginia, buoyed by growing optimism about the state of the country and fueled by a big gender gap working in his favor, according to a new Washington Post poll.

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Obama tells U.N.: U.S. will ‘always stand up’ for freedom around the world

NEW YORK — President Obama urged world leaders Tuesday to condemn the recent deadly attacks against U.S. diplomats and missions in Libya and Egypt, suggesting that now is a key moment in the struggle for democratic freedom in the Muslim world.

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Despite Recent Deals, South Sudan a Long Way From New Pipelines

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Ahmadinejad Unfazed

David Ignatius, Washington Post
NEW YORKIran may be on the firing line, but President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was as calmly combative as ever Sunday, dismissing Israel’s military threats and predicting that nothing will happen in the nuclear talks until after the U.S. presidential elections. In an interview on the eve of his visit to the United Nations, Ahmadinejad seemed unfazed by recent months of speculation about bombing strikes or by the precarious state of Tehran’s allies in Damascus. Instead, he talked often about politics — including a reference to what he saw as the war-weariness of the...

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Monday, September 24, 2012

Jennifer Rubin: Hold the hope, deliver change

One of the defining features of Barack Obama’s presidency is a refusal or inability to get out in front of problems and steer events in their favor. As Bob Woodward told ABC’s Diane Sawyer on the debt ceiling deal, “‘President Clinton, President Reagan. And if you look at them, you can criticize them for lots of things. They by and large worked their will,’ Woodward told Sawyer. ‘On this, President Obama did not.’ ”

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